Climate scientists

Tyler Cowen writes:

I’ve stressed on MR many times that climate change is not in fact an existential risk, but it could be a civilization-destroying risk if we just keep on boosting carbon emissions without end. I don’t know a serious scientist who takes issue with that claim.

A few serious scientists: Richard Lindzen, Will Happer, Judith Curry, John Clauser, Ivar Giaever

Dear Tyler,

There are, in fact, a few serious scientists who take issue with that claim, and you should meet some of them. My response is in three parts, plus information about a class I teach and a call for a proper debate:

Part I: Over 9,000 scientists with PhDs take issue with that claim

First, a group of volunteer scientists put together a list of over 31,000 scientists who signed a petition asking for people who agreed with the statement:

There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gases is causing, or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the earth’s atmosphere and destruction of the earth’s climate. Moreover, there is substantial evidence that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide produce many beneficial effects upon the natural plant and animal environments of earth.

More than 9,000 people with PhDs signed that petition. Many more are working scientists with master’s degrees. Feel free to discount those numbers by some amount if you wish, but those signatures are just a sample of a much larger number. Other lists include …

• members of the CO2 Coalition
• scientists who have signed the Clintel Declaration
• Brazilian scientists who signed a statement to the government of Brazil
• a list on Github (don’t know anything about this one)
• More Than 700 International Scientists join a senate report Over Man-Made Global Warming Claims

Of course, numbers of “believers” don’t determine scientific outcomes, consensus is not how science is done, but I’m responding here to a specific claim and want to introduce you to some people you don’t know.

Part II: A curated list of serious scientists with PhDs who take issue with that claim

Total so far: 262

These people with Ph.Ds have all gone on record saying that CO2 is beneficial and is not causing any degree of worrying climate change, even in the extreme limit that humans could produce. I have validated their credentials. Some of them probably signed the above petition. Those still alive (most) are actively helping people learn that today’s climate science is mostly propaganda, lies, and bad models.

I'm leaving out working scientists …

• with master's degrees (too many to count).
• with MDs (also too many).
• who can't afford to go on the record in fear of losing their jobs (far too many).
• who asked to be left off for professional reasons but said they support the idea.

To be honest, there are many more PhD’d scientists than I can document properly. In case you think MIT PhDs get extra credit, they are in blue (with apologies to those from Princeton, Cal Tech, and Stanford) and Nobel laureates in red:

1. Aitkin, Don — political science, University of Canberra
2. Alexander, Ralph — physics, Oxford University
3. Alexandris, Stavros — agricultural sciences, Agricultural University of Athens
4. Ault, Earl — plasma physics, UCLA
5. Baeuerle, Patrick — biology, Universities of Konstanz and Munich
6. Bailunas, Sallie — astrophysics, Harvard University
7. Balino, Jorge Luis — nuclear engineering, Instituto Balseiro, Argentina
8. Ball, Tim (dec) — geography and historical climatology, Queen Mary University, London
9. Bednyagin, Denis — economics of innovation in energy, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne (EPFL)
10. Bengtsson, Lennaert — meteorology, Stockholm University, former director of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg
11. Berenson, Paul C. — physics, MIT
12. Bergholz, Werner — semiconductor physics, Jacobs University Bremen
13. Berkhout, Guus — physics cum laude, Delft University
14. Best, Clive — high energy physics, University of Liverpool
15. Bhattacharyya, Samit — nuclear engineering, University of Wisconsin, Madison
16. Billman, Ken — physics MIT, NASA, National Academy of Sciences
17. Blaisdell, Charles — chemical engineering, University of Iowa
18. Blakely, Philip — molecular biology, Keele University, UK
19. Bohn, Edward — nuclear engineering, university of Illinois
20. Bovy, Arnold — heat transfer, RWTH Aachen, Germany
21. Boyce, Matt — geology, UAitkin, Don — political science, University of Canberra
22. Alexander, Ralph — physics, Oxford University
23. Alexandris, Stavros — agricultural sciences, Agricultural University of Athens
24. Ault, Earl — plasma physics, UCLA
25. Baeuerle, Patrick — biology, Universities of Konstanz and Munich
26. Bailunas, Sallie — astrophysics, Harvard University
27. Balino, Jorge Luis — nuclear engineering, Instituto Balseiro, Argentina
28. Ball, Tim (dec) — geography and historical climatology, Queen Mary University, London
29. Balling, Robert — geography, University of Oklahoma
30. Bednyagin, Denis — economics of innovation in energy, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne (EPFL)
31. Bengtsson, Lennaert — meteorology, University of Sweden, former director of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg
32. Berenson, Paul C. — physics, MIT
33. Bergholz, Werner — semiconductor physics, Jacobs University Bremen
34. Berkhout, Guus — physics cum laude, Delft University
35. Best, Clive — high energy physics, University of Liverpool
36. Bhattacharyya, Samit — nuclear engineering, University of Wisconsin, Madison
37. Billman, Ken — physics MIT, NASA, National Academy of Sciences
38. Blaisdell, Charles — chemical engineering, University of Iowa
39. Blakely, Philip — molecular biology, Keele University, UK
40. Bohn, Edward — nuclear engineering, university of Illinois
41. Bovy, Arnold — heat transfer, RETH Aachen, Germany
42. Boyce, Matt — geology, university of West Virginia
43. Brady, Howard Thomas — Antarctic science, University of Northern Illinois
44. Briggs, William — mathematical statistics, Cornell University
45. Burns, Tony — chemistry, University of New South Wales
46. Buson, Christian — agronomy, L'Institut Agro Rennes-Angers, France
47. Bye, Erik — physical chemistry, University of Oslo, Norway
48. Camp, Sharon — analytical chemistry, Georgia Tech
49. Carlin, Alan — economics, MIT
50. Carr, John — physics, Imperial College, London
51. Carter, Robert — paleontology, University of Cambridge
52. Cerveny, Randy — geography, Arizona State University
53. Chambers, Kent A. — chemistry, Hardin Simmons University
54. Chiaudani, Alessandro — agriculture, Università di Chieti-Pescara, Italy
55. Chilingarian, George — petroleum engineering, University of Southern California
56. Christy, John — atmospheric sciences, University of Illinois, Distinguished Professor of Atmospheric Science and Director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville
57. Clark, Ian — Earth science, Université de Paris-Sud, Orsay
58. Clark, Roy — chemical physics, University of Sussex, UK
59. Clauser, John — physics, Columbia University, Nobel prize in physics
60. Clough, Charles — atmospheric science (plus Th.D.), retired meteorologist
61. Clukey, Eric — geotechnical engineering, Cornell
62. Cohen, Roger (dec) — physics, Rutgers
63. Collum, David — chemistry, Columbia University
64. Connolly, Michael — spectroscopy, Trinity College, Dublin
65. Connolly, Ronan — computational chemistry, University College, Dublin
66. Cooper, Douglas — Engineering, Harvard University
67. Cripwell, F. James — physics, Cavendish Laboratory, Cambridge
68. Crockford, Susan — biology, University of British Columbia
69. Cronin, Matthew — biology, research professor University of Alaska Fairbanks
70. Cullen, Andrew — geography, University of Oklahoma
71. Curry, Judith — geophysical sciences, University of Chicago
72. D'Alonzo, Raphael — analytical chemistry, University of Massachusetts Amherst
73. de Freitas, Chris (dec) — climatology, University of Queensland, Australia
74. de Lange, Cornelis Andreas "Kees" — chemistry, University of Bristol
75. de Lange, Willem — earth sciences, University of Waikato, New Zealand
76. de Waart, Jules — Earth science, University of Amsterdam
77. Debertin, David — Agricultural Economics, Purdue University
78. Delibero Angelo, Johnson — nuclear technology, materials science, University of São Paulo
79. Derakhshani, Maaneli "Max" — physics, University of Utrecht
80. Don Easterbrook — geology, University of Washington
81. Doshi, Tilak — Economics, University of Hawaii/East West Centre
82. Douglas, Art V. — atmospheric sciences, Creighton University
83. Drake, James F. — atmospheric sciences, The Aerospace Corporation
84. Du Berger, Reynald — Geophysics emeritus, Université du Québec à Chicoutimi
85. Duffy, Geoffrey G. — chemical and materials engineering, University of Auckland
86. Dyson, Freeman (dec) — received 20 honorary PhDs and was a vocal skeptic of AGW
87. Enstrom, James — physics, Stanford
88. Everett, Bruce — economics, Fletcher School at Tufts
89. Everett, John — oceanography/systems analysis, Florida State University
90. Farona, Michael F. — chemistry/biochemistry, University of Akron and UNC Greensboro
91. Felicio, Ricardo Augusto — physical geography, University of São Paulo
92. Firth, Brian — fluid dynamics, Oxford University
93. Fournier, Joseph — physical chemistry, University of Calgary
94. Frank, Neil — meteorology, Florida State University; former director of the National Hurricane Data Center
95. Frank, Pat — physics, Stanford Linear Accelerator
96. Frauenfeld, Oliver — environmental sciences, University of Virginia, contributing author IPCC 2007
97. Fricke, Martin — physics, Oak Ridge National Laboratories
98. Friis-Christensen, Eigil (dec) — geophysics, University of Copenhagen
99. Fulks, Gordon — physics, University of Chicago
100. Furfari, Samuel — energy, University of Brussels
101. Gannon, Terry — device physics, University of California at Santa Barbara
102. Gee, David — geology, Uppsala University, Sweden
103. Gerhard, Lee — geology emeritus, University of Kansas
104. Gerry, Edward — nuclear engineering, MIT
105. Giaever, Ivar — physics, RPI, Nobel prize in physics
106. Glatzle, Albrecht — plant nutrition, University of Hohenheim, Germany - Retired Director of Research of INTTAS Paraguay
107. Goklany, Indur — electrical engineering, Michigan State University, IPCC participant turned critic
108. Goldschmidt, Victor — mechanical engineering, Purdue University
109. Gonzalez, Guillermo — physics/astronomy, Iowa State University
110. Gray, Gary O. — chemistry, Southwest Baptist University
111. Gray, Thomas B. — meteorology, Florida State University
112. Gray, Vincent (dec) — physical chemistry, Cambridge University
113. Gray, William (dec) — geophysical sciences, University of Chicago
114. Green, Kenneth P. — environmental science, UCLA
115. Gulberg, Lawrence — Analytical Chemistry, University of Washington
116. Hammel, Ernst — Nuclear Physics, University of Vienna
117. Hansen, Jens Morten — geology, University of Copenhagen
118. Happer, Will — physics emeritus, Princeton
119. Harde, Hermann — experimental physics, University of Kaiserslautern
120. Harris, Stuart Arthur — geology, Queen Mary University, London
121. Hayden, Howard "Cork" — physics emeritus, University of Connecticut
122. Higginbotham, Joseph — physics, University of Toledo
123. Hogan, C Michael — physics, Stanford University
124. Hohenberg, Charles — physics, University of California Berkeley
125. Holmes, Robert Ian — climate mitigation, Federation University, Australia
126. Humlum, Ole — glacial geomorphology, University of Copenhagen
127. Hunt, William — wildlife biology/geology, NOAA
128. Idso, Craig — geography, Arizona State; founder and chairman of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change
129. Idso, Sherwood — soil science, University of Minnesota
130. Islam, Aziz — geology, University of Sheffield
131. Itoh, Kiminori — industrial chemistry, University of Tokyo
132. Izrael, Yuri — physics, Central Asian State University, Vice-President of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and Co-Chair of Working Group II and Vice-Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). He was the IPCC coordinator in the Russian Federation. As part of the IPCC delegation, he received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007
133. Jaworowski, Zbigniew — natural sciences, Warsaw
134. Johnston, Jason — economics, University of Michigan
135. Kalghatgi, Gautam — aeronautical Engineering, Bristol University
136. Kalveks, Rudolph — Theoretical Physics, Imperial College, London
137. Khandekar, Madhav — PhD in meteorology, Florida State University
138. Keen, Richard — atmospheric sciences, University of Colorado
139. Kellow, Aynsley — political studies, University of Otago, IPCC reviewer
140. Kelly, Michael Joseph — solid state physics, Cambridge
141. Kendrick, Hugh — physics, Cal Tech
142. Kilty, Kevin — geophysics, University of Utah
143. King, David — seismology, Australian National University
144. Klein, Richard E. — engineering, Purdue University
145. Koonin, Steven — Theoretical Physics, MIT
146. Lama, William — physics, University of Rochester
147. Landa, Blanca Parga — School of Naval Architects and Engineers, Technical University of Madrid (UPM).
148. Ledger, John — tropical pathology, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg
149. Legates, David — climatology, University of Delaware
150. Lerche, Thomas — statistics, computer science, and educational design, Faculty of Human Sciences at the University of Regensburg, Germany
151. Lewis, Marlo Jr — government, Harvard University
152. Lindzen, Richard — applied mathematics, MIT; professor of atmospheric sciences emeritus at MIT
153. Lins, Harry — environmental sciences, university unclear, USGS hydrologist
154. Linsay, Paul — physics, University of Chicago
155. Lloyd, Philip — chemistry, University of Calgary
156. Lomborg, Bjorn — political science, University of Copenhagen
157. Luning, Sebastian — geology/Paleontology, University of Bremen
158. Lynch, William — solid state physics, Princeton & MIT
159. MacDonald, Digby — chemistry, University of Calgary
160. Madarasz, Frank — condensed Matter Theoretical Physics, University of Alabama at Huntsville
161. Maia, Thiago — nuclear physics and astrophysics
162. Manheimer, Wallace — physics, MIT
163. Mann, Richard — physical chemistry, Princeton
164. Manns, Francis T. — geology, University of Toronto
165. Marks, Ronald C. — chemistry, North Greenville University
166. Masson, Henri — chemical engineering processes, University of Brussels
167. McCall, Gene — applied mathematics and plasma physics, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Former Chief Scientist at Air Force Space Command
168. McKittrick, Ross — economics, University of Guelph
169. McMurtry, Mike — geology, St Andrews University, Scotland
170. Mearns, Euan — isotope geochemistry, University of Aberdeen
171. Meeus, Ferdinand — chemistry, photophysics, photochemistry, KU Leuven
172. Michaels, Patrick (dec) — ecological climatology, University of Wisconsin at Madison; was president of the American Association of State Climatologists and program chair for the Committee on Applied Climatology of the American Meteorological Society
173. Mickelson, Edward — chemistry, Rice University
174. Miskolczi, Ferenc — atmospheric physics, former NASA Ames Research Center
175. Moore, John — economics, University of Virginia
176. Moore, Patrick — ecology University of British Columbia
177. Moring, Jill — chemistry, University of Connecticut
178. Morner, Nils-Axel (dec) — Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University
179. Muirhead, Vincent U. — aerospace engineering, University of Kansas
180. Mullis, Kary (dec) — biochemistry, University of California, Berkeley
181. Nakamura, Mototaka — meteorology, MIT
182. Nascimento, Rafaella — chemistry, University of Montreal
183. Nichols, Rodney — physics, Harvard; past President and CEO of the New York Academy of Sciences
184. Nikolov, Ned — ecosystem modeling, Colorado State University
185. Nordangård, Jacob — Technology and Social Change, Linköping University
186. Nordin, Ingemar — Philosophy of Science, Lund University
187. Ott, Markus — organic chemistry, University of Saarland
188. Packham, David — atmospheric science, CSIRO/Monash University
189. Parish, Trueman — engineering, Rice University
190. Park, Seok Soon — environmental science, Rutgers
191. Parmentola, John — physics, MIT
192. Peiser, Benny — political science, University of Frankfurt
193. Plimer, Ian — Geology at Macquarie University, Australia
194. Pochat, Victor — water resources engineering, Universidad del Litoral, Argentina
195. Poppe, Hugo (dec) — Climatology, KU-Leuven
196. Poyet, Patrice — geochemistry, Université de Nice, France
197. Préat, Alain — geology, Université Libre de Bruxelles
198. Prestininzi, Alberto — geology, Università di Roma La Sapienza
199. Reisman, George — economics, New York University
200. Reiter, Paul — medical entomology, Pasteur Institute
201. Reitz, Rolf — mechanical and aerospace engineering, Princeton
202. Rickard, Terry — Engineering Physics, University of California, San Diego
203. Ridd, Peter — physics, James Cook University (was head of physics department before they let him go for expressing his thoughts on climate science)
204. Ridley, Matt — biology, Oxford
205. Ritchie, Gary — forest biology, University of Washington
206. Robinson, Art — biochemistry, University of California San Diego
207. Rossiter, Caleb — Policy, Cornell University
208. Salazar, Michael R. — chemistry, Union University
209. Salby, Murry (dec) — environmental dynamics, Georgia Tech
210. Sas, Daryl — biology, Geneva College
211. Scafetta, Nicola — physics, University of North Texas, Duke University
212. Schernikau, Lars — economics, Technische Universität Berlin, Germany
213. Schoneveld, Chris — structural geology, Universiteit Leiden Netherlands
214. Segalstad, Tom — geochemistry/geology, University of Oslo, former IPCC expert reviewer
215. Seitz, Frederick (dec) — solid-state physics, Princeton
216. Sevenhans, Joannes — electrical engineering, KU Leuven
217. Shanmugam, Ganapathy — geology, University of Tennessee, Knoxville
218. Shaviv, Nir — solar science, Israel Institute of Technology (Technion)
219. Sheahan, Tom — physics, MIT
220. Simpson, Joanne — meteorology, Florida State University
221. Singer, S. Fred (dec) — physics, Princeton
222. Skrable, Kenneth — radiology, Rutgers
223. Smith, G. LeBlanc — geosciences, CSIRO Australia
224. Soepyan, Fritz Bryan — chemical engineering, University of Tulsa
225. Soon, Willie — aerospace engineering, University of Southern California
226. Spencer, Roy — meteorology, University of Wisconsin, Madison; works for NASA
227. Staddon, John — experimental psych at Harvard and MIT; biology emeritus at Duke
228. Steele, Charles — economics, New York University
229. Steward, Leighton — geology, award-winning geologist/environmentalist
230. Stilbs, Peter — physical chemistry, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm
231. Svensmark, Henrik — physics, Technical University of Denmark
232. Tanaka, Hiroshi — Atmospheric energetics, Dynamic meteorology, and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics; Department of Atmospheric Science, University of Missouri-Columbia, USA
233. Thomas, Mario — chemistry, Universite Laval, Canada
234. Thornton, Charles — structural mechanics, New York University
235. Thuene, Wolfgang P. — meteorology, German Weather Service
236. Tol, Richard — economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
237. Tolk, Norman — atomic physics, Columbia University
238. Tonni, Eduardo — paleontology, University of La Plata, Argentina
239. Trevino, Andres — chemical engineering, University of Wisconsin, Madison
240. Vahrenholt, Fritz — chemistry, University of Münster
241. Van Wijngaarden, William — physics, York University; chair of faculty of science and engineering
242. Vinos, Javier — biochemistry, Autonomous University of Madrid; author of Climate of the Past, Present, and Future - a Scientific Debate (the best book on climate ever written)
243. Viterito, Arthur — geography, University of Denver
244. Vogel, Koen — geology, Penn State
245. Walters, William — physical chemistry, University of Maryland
246. Ward, Frederick Jr — meteorology, MIT
247. Wathelet, Marc — molecular biology, Free University of Brussels
248. Watson, Thorpe — Metallurgy & Materials Science, The University of Birmingham
249. Wells, William L. — chemistry/chemical engineering, Murray State University
250. Whitehouse, David — astrophysics, Victoria University of Manchester
251. Wielicki, Matthew — earth science, UCLA
252. Wimberley, Terry — ecological studies, Florida Gulf Coast University
253. Winters, Terry — chemistry, University of Wales
254. Wojick, David — philosophy of science/mathematical logic, University of Pittsburgh
255. Wolf, Frederick — physics, Keene State College
256. Wolkers, Hans — Physiology/ecotoxicology, Utrecht University
257. Young, Stanley — statistics and genetics, North Carolina State University
258. Zágoni, Miklós — physics, Hungary (formerly most outspoken Kyoto supporter, reversed to skeptic)
259. Zeller, Karl — meteorology, Colorado State University
260. Zharkova, Valentina — astrophysics, Main Astronomical Observatory, Kiev, Ukraine
261. Zhong, Yong — physics, Monash University, Australia
262. Zybach, Bob — environmental science, Oregon State

Those who want to be added — send me your name, department, and university that issued your Ph.D.

You can find plenty of criticism of most of these people online. These are the scientists old enough or brave enough not to be threatened. Calling them names does not delete the importance of their contributions to science. If you don’t know who Giordano Bruno was, that’s exactly my point. Science has a serious credibility problem.

The risk of net-zero

Many of us agree with the statement that going to net-zero via renewables is a threat to civilization as we know it because the math of net-zero doesn’t work, both for economic and ecological reasons. I don’t speak for everyone, and I only have a master’s degree, but I believe most of us agree that a gradual, market-based transition to nuclear energy with no wind, minimal solar, minimal battery storage, minimal regulation, and minimal government subsidies is the best energy policy. Intermittent power makes everyone poorer, especially in Africa. No one should have to suffer from energy poverty. Governments should support the development of fossil-fuel-based grids to provide affordable, reliable baseload power and focus environmental resources on local issues like pollution, spills, cleanups, prevention, etc. Governments should support efforts to build nuclear power plants the market wants, not through subsidies but through reduced regulation and stronger international agreements.

No country, no state, no city, no company, no organization should have a climate policy, because humans can’t affect the climate.

Part III: For further research

There is much more. There are papers, blogs, newsletters, organizations, books, videos, and YouTube channels all dedicated to getting the word out that scientifically, CO2 is not a driver of climate, we are currently in a CO2 famine, and more would be better. CO2 is plant food. It is not pollution. Greenhouses pump in CO2 to about 1,200 PPM to help plants grow. For 200 million years, from 550 million to 350 million years ago, CO2 was in the 2,000 to 8,000 PPM range (up to 20 times higher than today), the earth was generally (but not always) warmer than today, plants exploded, and life flourished. Even back then, CO2 drove plant growth but not the climate.

Climate science master class with David Siegel

The class is now evergreen — you can join any time. See the class pagefor details and registration.

An important climate debate

We would be happy if you could help arrange a serious, long-format debate on the science. We are eager to debate. I think you’ll find precious few mainstream climate scientists interested in debate. The IPCC certainly isn’t.

So, Tyler, if you’d like to have a conversation with any of these people, let me know and I’ll set it up. All of us could read and learn more widely on many topics, as you’ve explained so many times. I’d love to help you do that.

Sincerely,

David Siegel